On road to the White House, Kosovo may be a speed bump

By Michael Kranish, Globe Staff, April 6, 1999

WASHINGTON -- Depending on how long the United States is involved in the conflict in Kosovo, the crisis could reshape the presidential campaign, shifting the focus from domestic affairs to foreign policy, an area in which some candidates have little expertise.

In the past few days, the conflict has highlighted the lack of foreign policy experience of the Republican front-runner, Texas Governor George W. Bush, while it appears to have boosted Senator John McCain of Arizona, a former Vietnam POW and a Senate leader on international issues.

This is the opposite of what analysts thought would unfold in the Republican presidential race. Until recently, it was presumed that the 2000 campaign, like those in 1992 and 1996, would center on domestic matters. Bill Clinton's defeat of George Bush in 1992, for example, was attributed to his criticism of Bush's focus on foreign affairs. Thus, the backers of Bush's son have highlighted his domestic expertise as governor.

But even McCain says it is far too early to say how Kosovo will affect the campaign. It depends on how long the conflict lasts, and the result, he said.

"If this situation is resolved fairly quickly, then it will recede in the consciousness of the American people as previous ones have," McCain said yesterday in an interview. "But if it goes on, obviously the American people would look at people they think about who they can trust on this issue."

On the Democratic side, a drawn-out battle in Kosovo could provide former Senator Bill Bradley of New Jersey with a prime issue against Vice President Al Gore, who helped develop the bombing strategy. Bradley started out cautiously, saying on March 24, the day the NATO air raids began, that he had "serious questions about our policy." A week later, on April 1, Bradley took aim at his primary opponent, saying that the Clinton-Gore policy is flawed, and "Kosovo could become like Northern Ireland."

"The two losers could be Gore and George W.," said Walter Russell Mead, senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations. "If we have a long inconclusive war, then the Democratic Party needs somebody not linked to the policy, and Gore won't be able to separate himself. That's good news for Bradley. For George W., it does make it tough that he doesn't have good foreign policy experience."

Brent Scowcroft, the national security adviser to President Bush, said yesterday that the younger Bush clearly lacks international credentials. "Is he comfortable with foreign policy? I would say not," Scowcroft said. He said the governor's main experience "was being around when his father was in his many different jobs."

Scowcroft said Bush will learn throughout the campaign "and he had more attention to foreign policy than Bill Clinton did in 1992." The bottom line, Scowcroft said, is there needs to be more focus on the importance of foreign policy than in the last two campaigns.

The Kosovo conflict already has affected McCain's candidacy. He canceled plans today to formally announce his presidential campaign in New Hampshire, figuring this was no time to attack Clinton's policy -- or try to compete with the news from Yugoslavia.

McCain has received more attention in the past week from the national media for his statements in support of the air raids and his assertion that ground forces should not be ruled out. For the record, McCain said yesterday, "I'm a candidate. I'm running."

Another Republican candidate strongly in support of the strikes is Elizabeth Dole, whose government experience is mostly domestic, such as heading the Transportation and Labor departments, but who also has foreign policy experience as former head of the Red Cross. Her husband, former senator Bob Dole, has been to Kosovo as a special envoy for the State Department.

The other Republican candidates have varying foreign policy experience. Magazine publisher Steve Forbes is known mostly for his flat-tax proposal. He has cited his foreign business dealings and his service as chairman of the bipartisan Board for International Broadcasting from 1985 to 1993.

Former Tennessee governor Lamar Alexander often notes that he has talked with world leaders and that his family once lived for six months in Australia. Former Reagan administration aide Gary Bauer specialized in domestic, not foreign, affairs. Patrick J. Buchanan, meanwhile, often talks about foreign policy from an isolationist perspective, making his opposition to the Serbian bombings predictable. Representative John R. Kasich of Ohio has specialized in domestic budget and tax matters.

Senator Bob Smith of New Hampshire, a Vietnam veteran, does have significant credentials, serving as chairman of the strategic forces subcommittee of the Armed Forces Committee. Smith opposes the US military action in Serbia.

In an interview yesterday, Smith said Kosovo "could be a defining issue in the Republican presidential primary. Where is George Bush on this? Where are these guys on this?"

As for Bush, his lack of foreign policy experience has not been viewed as a problem until recently. Bush's father served as CIA director and US ambassador to China, and as president put together the coalition forces for the Persian Gulf War. But in the 1992 campaign, Clinton criticized Bush for caring little about domestic affairs. By comparison, Governor Bush's focus on domestic policy is considered his major strength.

Bush, when asked about Clinton's policy on Kosovo, has been cautious, saying the United States "must have a clear mission . . . My question is, is it good for America?"

A quick resolution to the conflict could diminish the importance of foreign affairs in the campaign. After all, even President Bush's 1991 victory in the Gulf War was not enough to prevent his defeat the following year.

But if the conflict drags on for months or casualties start to mount -- and especially if ground troops are warring with Serbian forces during the primaries -- then the impact could be huge. In that case, the comparison likely will be made to President Carter, who lost reelection in 1976 partly because US hostages had been taken in Iran.