ASHINGTON - After a five-week political whirlwind that began with the New Hampshire primary, the insurgent candidates, John McCain and Bill Bradley, head into ''Super Tuesday'' facing the same difficulties that have dogged them from the start with much of the political establishment and party rules arrayed in opposition.
With the notable exception of five New England states holding elections on Tuesday, some of the biggest states going to the polls on that day are so dominated by the party infrastructure and rules favoring George W. Bush and Al Gore that some analysts refer to Super Tuesday as Establishment Tuesday.
''It is a very steep hill to climb,'' said former senator Warren Rudman, national cochairman of McCain's campaign against Bush, the Republican front-runner. While predicting McCain will do ''very well'' on Tuesday, Rudman said that under arcane party rules, McCain could receive the most overall votes in the two biggest states, California and New York, while receiving far fewer delegates than Bush.
''Something is wrong with that,'' Rudman said.
But Ron Kaufman, who was political director for President George Bush and is a friend of his son, said the Texas governor's prospects look good Tuesday because of his campaign's expenditure of tens of millions of dollars across the country and his ability to earn the backing of party leaders.
''The McCain hurricane has been pretty impressive,'' said Kaufman, a Republican national committeeman from Massachusetts. ''But Bush's investment is paying off. The McCain hurricane has blown through'' and Bush ''is still standing.''
Similarly, Bradley, who lost by just four points to Gore in New Hampshire and then had to wait a month for the next primary, is behind in the polls in every state that will vote Tuesday, including New York, where he once played professional basketball. It has been difficult to overcome Gore's advantage in local and national organization, as Bradley found out when he lost last Tuesday in Washington despite six straight days of campaigning there. Bradley chalked up the loss to ''entrenched power.''
The very phrase ''Super Tuesday'' underscores the difficulty facing the insurgents. It is a contest of more than a dozen states - 16 for Democrats and 13 for Republicans - where money and organization are supremely important. That is a marked contrast to the Iowa caucuses and New Hampshire primary, when the focus was on meeting voters and spending many days in the states.
''You can make the argument that being associated with the establishment is not a good thing in Iowa and New Hampshire,'' said a Gore spokesman, Chris Lehane. On Super Tuesday, by contrast, he said, ''You are talking primarily about the core Democrats in those states, and there's not the independent influx you had in other states. You are talking traditional base.''
Perhaps no one has been more frustrated by the process, and particularly the schedule, than Bradley. After narrowly losing New Hampshire, he said his campaign was on the rise. Then he had to wait a month for the next contest, the nonbinding Washington primary that he lost.
''It turned out to be a vicious cycle,'' said a Bradley spokesman, Mo Elleithee, who nonetheless says Bradley has some bright prospects for Tuesday in the Northeast. ''The media wasn't paying attention because we didn't have a contest, and then the media would say no one was paying attention,'' Elleithee said.
The five New England states apart from New Hampshire are thought to be leaning toward Gore and McCain, although Bush has said he hopes to win in Maine and perhaps Connecticut. The most obvious exception to the importance of the GOP establishment is Massachusetts, where McCain is far ahead in the polls despite Bush's backing by Governor Paul Cellucci.
The race is expected to be decided in three crucial contests: New York, Ohio, and California.
For Bradley, a win in just one of those states might prompt him to extend his campaign. New York is his best hope. But a strong showing in several states would be helpful because most states, including California, award Democratic delegates on a proportional basis, Bradley spokesman Tony Wyche said.
For McCain, who had hoped to ride a national wave of momentum to a blowout on Tuesday, the stakes are equally high. But his advisers say privately that even winning New England and New York, where he is even in the polls with Bush, may not be enough.
McCain defied the New York party leadership, which backs Bush, and got his name on the ballot. But he may find that even if he wins the popular vote, party leaders may still use their power to help Bush. For starters, New York rules allow eight members of the party leadership to appoint their own delegates, all of which presumably would go to Bush. Other delegates are allocated by the vote in each congressional district. So, while McCain is likely to win by a landslide in New York City congressional districts, possibly piling up a large enough margin to win the statewide popular vote, he could lose many upstate congressional districts to Bush, who would thus get a large share of delegates.
The situation is even worse for McCain in California, which has the biggest prize of 162 delegates. Under the state's Republican Party rules, only the votes of Republicans count toward the winner-take-all selection of delegates. The rule greatly hurts the chances of McCain, who has relied on his crossover appeal among independents and Democrats. McCain at least hopes to win the state's ''beauty contest'' vote, in which any voter can participate. Thus, McCain could win the overall vote without getting a single delegate.
Some McCain backers, while doubting there is any chance to win the Republican vote, believe that a win in the no-delegate contest could set the stage for a convention challenge of delegate rules. Under this theory, a successful challenge could result in McCain winning at least some of California's delegates, but the idea is considered a long shot.
That leaves Ohio, where delegates are awarded by congressional district, meaning that even a McCain win would not result in a sweep of the state's delegates. The McCain campaign has compared Ohio to Michigan, which McCain won with the votes of many Democrats and independents. Indeed, 18 percent of McCain's Michigan vote came from Democrats.
But there is a big difference between Ohio and Michigan. Ohio, unlike Michigan, is holding a Democratic primary on the same day, so there will be less incentive for Democrats and independents to cross over for McCain.
''Ohio is a state where organization matters,'' said John Green, an observer of the state's political scene and director of the Bliss Institute at the University of Akron. ''We have eight different media markets and different cultures. The fact that Ohio's election is occurring on a day with so many other states stretches resources thin.''
Unlike in Michigan, Green said, ''The Bush people have figured out in this state how to use their organization. They are appealing to independents as well as Republicans.''
On the Democratic side, Gore similarly has a huge organizational advantage that is likely to give him a major victory in Ohio, Green said. Super Tuesday, he said, is probably the establishment's day.
