ANOVER, N.H. - As the five Republican presidential candidates appeared at a nationally televised forum here last night, they didn't just advocate contrasting views. They offered an outline of the way the missing man, Texas Governor George W. Bush, could run into serious political trouble in New Hampshire. Like marksmen aiming at a limited number of targets, each of the five GOP candidates appealed directly to a sizable slice of the electorate in the first-primary state, from the antitax conservatives, to the antiabortion movement, to Independents who can choose to vote in the GOP primary. If even some of those appeals are successful, the Bush vote may be squeezed from several sides.
Senator John McCain of Arizona, who has risen steadily to second place in the polls, may have gained the most from the opportunity the town-meeting format offered to make just that sort of focused appeal. The first question of the night was whether those favoring abortion rights should be welcomed into the Republican Party, and it played into McCain's hands as he appealed to voters in this state where a majority of people back such rights.
McCain responded in a way clearly designed to resonate with moderate Republicans as well as Independents who favor abortion rights. While assuring conservatives that he is opposed to abortion, McCain said, ''I worry a great deal about the unintended consequences about sending a message that we are not an inclusionary party.''
McCain also benefited because none of the other White House prospects aimed their criticism at him, leaving him unscarred as the second-place candidate. The only direct clash of the night came between former Reagan aide Gary Bauer and publisher Steve Forbes. Bauer said his plan for a 16 percent flat tax would help working people better than Forbes' 17 percent plan, prompting Forbes to respond: ''Gary, you are wrong.'' Bauer and Forbes are seeking votes from a similar slice of the electorate, antiabortion conservatives who favor a flat tax.
But all of the candidates benefited from being on the same stage without Bush and before a nationally televised audience, with more than 300 members of the news media on hand. Particularly for the candidates who now barely register in the polls, such as Senator Orrin Hatch of Utah, it was the best chance yet to publicize their views.
Forbes, whose game plan in the session was to go after Bush, got a break when a questioner regretted that she was being forced to address Forbes instead of Bush on campaign financing. Forbes said he shared the frustration that Bush didn't appear, adding acidly that the Texas governor might have come if the forum had been cast as a chance to raise more campaign cash. ''Perhaps in the future if we call this a fund-raiser, he might show up,'' Forbes jibed.
Bush, who chose to attend a Dallas award ceremony for his wife, Laura, clearly had the most to lose. Bush's absence played into the hands of those who say the governor is a fragile front-runner.
The 60-minute forum at Dartmouth College also underscored that there are several races going on within the Republican field. There is the race to be an alternative to Bush, the race to be the leading social conservative candidate, and the race to be the leading moderate alternative.
And, perhaps most important, there is the race for the Independent vote, which could determine the winner of both the GOP and Democratic primaries. Some analysts say McCain and Democrat Bill Bradley are likely to compete most heavily for the Independent vote. In the GOP race, that means that McCain could add thousands of votes to his total, while Bush is expected to draw his support mostly from Republican voters.
Forbes has been low in the New Hampshire polls all year despite campaigning here nonstop since his failed 1996 effort. He delivered a pitch that theoretically should resonate with New Hampshirites, highlighting his 17 percent flat-tax plan.
But Forbes's biggest impact in the race is likely to come in a few weeks, when he is expected to launch a series of advertisements accusing Bush of raising taxes in Texas. Forbes hopes that such attacks help his own campaign, but the effort may mostly serve to soften up Bush. That is similar to what happened in 1996, when Forbes unleashed a broadcast broadside against Bob Dole, which hurt the Kansas senator and helped Patrick Buchanan win the primary.
In some ways, the absence of Buchanan last night was as significant as the absence of Bush. Buchanan on Monday left the GOP to run as a Reform Party candidate. The Reform Party, however, does not participate in the primaries, meaning that Buchanan's name won't be on the ballot here for the first time since 1988. That leaves room for one of the five men on stage last night to be next year's spoiler - or next year's surprise.
