Poll: Gore, Bush lead in Iowa

Associated Press, 01/09/00

DES MOINES, Iowa (AP) — Vice President Al Gore has shored up his lead over former Sen. Bill Bradley among Iowans planning to vote in the Democratic Party caucuses this month, a new poll indicates. Among Republicans, it found George W. Bush holding to his solid lead over five other candidates.

The Des Moines Register's poll of registered voters — 500 Republicans and 501 Democrats — found Gore with support of 54 percent, Bradley of 33 percent. Thirteen percent said they were unsure or uncommitted.

Bush was the favorite of 45 percent of the Republicans polled, down from 49 percent in a similar poll conducted in November, with publisher Steve Forbes second at 18 percent.

In a national poll released Saturday by Newsweek magazine, Bush held almost a 5-1 lead over second-place Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., Bush's 63 percent to McCain's 13 percent. Newsweek said the national poll had the Gore-Bradley run for the Democratic nomination ``up for grabs'': Gore has the support of 50 percent to Bradley's 25 percent, but 25 percent of respondents said they were undecided.

The Iowa poll was based on a random telephone survey of people who said they definitely or probably will participate in Iowa's leadoff caucuses Jan. 24. It was conducted Jan. 2-6 by pollsters Selzer & Co. of Des Moines. The poll's margin of error is plus or minus 4 percentage points.

The caucuses, held in more than 2,000 locations across the state, launch the presidential nominating season.

On the Republican side, McCain held third in a statistical three-way tie with conservative commentator Alan Keyes and activist Gary Bauer. Keyes had 9 percent, McCain 8 percent, Bauer 7 percent. Sen. Orrin Hatch, R-Utah, had 5 percent, and 11 percent said they were unsure or uncommitted.

For the Newsweek national poll, Princeton Research Associates interviewed 753 adults Jan. 6-7, leaving a margin of error at 4 percentage points.

The poll found a decline in the number of voters who felt that ``good people are being discouraged from running for office by the high cost of campaigns is a major problem.'' It found 58 percent agreeing with that question, down from 63 percent in an October poll.

That could cut into McCain's voting bank. He has made campaign finance reform his major issue.

The poll also showed that few GOP voters seemed put off by the huge amounts of campaign money amassed by Bush — almost $58 million through Sept. 30. Indeed, 84 percent saw it as a sign of a successful, well-organized candidate.

At the same time, however, 47 percent said the money gives Bush an unfair advantage, and 37 percent worried that he was trying to buy his way into office.